The Indianapolis Colts host the Houston Texans in Week 1 of the 2024-25 NFL season for an AFC South showdown. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on September 8th at Lucas Oil Stadium and the game will be televised exclusively on the CBS Sports Network in the United States. In Canada, the game will also be available on DAZN.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with Indianapolis listed as 1.5-point home underdogs. The spread has increased slightly after early week betting, as the Colts are now available at +2.5. The total for this matchup is 47.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 1 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.
Houston Texans Look Ready to Take the Next Step
It was an incredible year for a Houston team that didn’t have overly high expectations heading into the 2023-24 season. Not only did the Texans finish well above .500 with a 10-7 record, they also won the AFC South Crown before following that up with a statement victory against Cleveland in the Wild Card Round. Their impressive run finally came to an end on the road in Baltimore, but optimism heading into 2024-25 is at record levels.
A huge part of Houston’s success is directly attributable to rookie sensation C.J. Stroud, who threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns while only giving up five interceptions. Stroud also found success on the ground, scampering for three rushing touchdowns. The dynamic receiving duo of Nico Collins and Tank Dell were electric last year, combining for over 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Stroud will have yet another downfield threat at his disposal in Week 1, as veteran Stefon Diggs joins an already stacked Texans offense. It will be interesting to see what his new role looks like, as he certainly has much more competition for targets in Houston than he did with the Bills over the past several years.
RB Joe Mixon is another fresh face on offense, signing a three year, $25.5 million dollar contract extension with the Texans in March. Mixon should bring increased stability out of the backfield for an offense that didn’t always utilize a feature back last season.
On the other side of the ball, Houston did a great job limiting opponents on the ground last year, surrendering an average of 96.6 yards per game. However, they did struggle at times defending against the pass, coughing up 234.1 yards per game through the air. The Texans defense also chipped in with 29 total takeaways, including converting 15 forced fumbles into 10 recoveries.
Indianapolis Colts Need Richardson to Stay Healthy
Indianapolis was one of the most exciting teams in the NFL during the month of September last season, as electrifying rookie Anthony Richardson was a human highlight reel for the Colts until injuring his shoulder in a Week 5 victory over Tennessee. Richardson will need to learn to protect himself if he hopes to have a long career at the NFL level, as he repeatedly exposed himself to brutal hits while stretching the field with his legs.
It was an up and down season for Indianapolis after Richards was shut down for the season, as they managed to finish the year with a respectable 9-8 record overall. RB Jonathan Taylor should put up big numbers out of the backfield after sharing time with Zack Moss in 2023-24. Taylor managed to rush for 741 yards in an injury-shortened season, but the Colts need him to hit 1,000+ in 2024-25 in order to have a shot at winning the division.
Star wideout Michael Pittman Jr. leads the way for the Indianapolis receiving corps after racking up 1,152 yards and four touchdowns last year. WR Josh Downs will be a key player to keep an eye out for in his sophomore season, as the second year player made huge strides in his rookie campaign and performed well above expectations right out of the gate.
Defensively, the Colts were one of the worst units in the entire NFL in multiple categories. Not only did they give up a healthy 349.8 total yards per game to opponents, they also got torched for an average of almost 25 points per game. They were especially poor at defending against the run, surrendering an average of 123.8 yards per game on the ground.
Free NFL Betting Prediction and Pick: Texans -2.5
While it seems abundantly clear that both of these AFC South rivals are trending in the right direction heading into a new NFL season, I feel much more confident backing Houston on the road in this particular spot. As long as the spread stays below a field goal, there appears to be decent value on the Texans side. While Anthony Richardson is finally back to 100% health, he clearly exhibited some signs of rust during the preseason. It’s also important to remember that he has only started five total games in his young NFL career, so there may still be a bit of a learning curve as he adjusts to the NFL game.
Houston appears poised to improve upon their already impressive 22.2 points per game average from last year. They couldn’t ask for a better matchup in Week 1 against a Colts squad that relied heavily upon offensive heroics to win games late after giving up huge scoring plays on defense. The Texans should also be able to force at least a couple of turnovers from a young quarterback who has already shown he is prone to fumble issues at times.
Indianapolis has also struggled mightily in Week 1 over the past decade or so, dropping nine out of their last ten season openers. Even more importantly, they are also 0-9 ATS in each of those nine straight up losses. I’m more than happy to lay the 2.5 points and side with Houston to cover the spread in this AFC South battle. Take the Texans to cover!
